Demand-Side Grid (dsgrid) Highly-resolved, Long-term Energy Demand Projections for the Contiguous United States: Integrated Energy Futures Scenarios

Modeled and compiled datasets describing electricity use by scenario, sector, and end use that are geographically specific, hourly, and projected out to 2050. The datasets align with a scenario assuming high degree of end-use electrification across all sectors and major improvements in electric end-use efficiency (the ?High Scenario?).?Data are developed by teams of National Laboratory researchers from Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Office's Integrated Energy Futures (IEF) project.
The modeling pipeline to produce these datasets leverages key EERE tools spanning buildings (ResStock, ComStock, and Scout for building loads; industry (IGATE-E); and transportation (TEMPO). The sectoral data developed by the building, industry, and transportation models are integrated, analyzed, and made publicly available using the demand-side grid (dsgrid) toolkit. The datasets are meant to demonstrate the modeling capabilities developed, and should not yet be used for decision-making purposes because:
- Starting energy use data (e.g., for 2024) are not fully validated at high resolution.
- One scenario is insufficient to describe the potential futures of electricity load, given large uncertainties in technology adoption, technology advancement, policy environment, weather, etc.
- Independent (unlinked) sectoral models are used to produce the electricity demand projections and the modeling input assumptions and results are not necessarily consistent across sectors in terms of ?levels of ambition? for the modeled scenario.